There's been a lot of speculation about OS X and iOS convergence. Some Kreskin wanna-bees have gone as far as predicting a date when the two operating systems will become one. I, for one, don't believe this will happen anytime in the foreseeable future, but I do believe there may be a different type of convergence on its way for the two software platforms. While I admit my crystal ball isn't magical, it's probably as accurate as many others' I've read. If they can make stupid predictions for pay, who could be offended if I do it for free? So, what the hell. Let's give it a shot.
Let's suppose for now that we are in the "post PC" era as defined by Mr. Jobs himself. Taking his definitions further, mobile devices like smartphones and tablets are "cars" that suit the needs of the majority of people and desktop computers are "trucks" for those who need more muscle. Again, supposing all this is true, it logically follows that some sort of "crossover" is in our future. Still with me?
Most of the paid pundits I've read on this subject seem to think OS X and iOS will each somehow morph into a single OS. For that to happen, either iOS will have to get a lot more capable and/or OS X will need a lobotomy or some combination thereof. I just don’t think it’s realistic to think anything like that will ever happen. Here’s why.
Apple's "A" series processors are evolving at a geometric rate. The A7 version in the latest iOS devices is a true 64 bit quad core CPU as potent as desktop processors of just a couple of years ago. It is absolutely capable (by virtue of it’s horsepower) of running OS X. I would bet a paycheck that somewhere in the bowels of 1 Infinite Loop there's an iPad prototype doing just that right now. Flash storage density is also getting higher every year. 128 gigs of storage is this year's max, but at the current rate of increase it isn't hard to imagine a 512 gig iPad a couple of years from now. There are literally millions of Macs today running on hardware with much less impressive specs.
iOS and the devices it runs on have successfully transformed from purely content consumption to consumption/creation machines. The combination of more capable hardware and highly evolved apps give users the capability to create beautiful documents, presentations, movies, music... You get the point. But even with all this progress, some tasks require lots of fast storage, special input devices and other connectivity. Some things like software development simply can't be done in iOS's sandboxed environment. There's still a lot of heavy lifting that requires a Mac and OS X. So, why would Apple ever consider dumbing down or otherwise neutering the best desktop operating system in the world? Short answer: It wouldn't.
So, Apple needs to make an extremely reliable OS optimized and restricted for use on phones and tablets plus a powerful, unrestricted, "no-holds-barred" OS for professionals and power-users. That's why I can't see the two operating systems completely converging. They are each designed to perform specific, different tasks. We’ve already seen how successful "one OS for everything" was when another company tried the model. But maybe Apple will take the opposite approach of "one device for almost everything". Here's how I see Apple's version of convergence playing out.
There are more than a couple of hardware manufacturers making "convertible" laptop machines. You know, the ones where they're a regular Windows PC when the display and keyboard are attached in the normal clamshell fashion and the display becomes an Android tablet when it's detached. It could be a really handy device, but the huge disparity of the two operating systems makes their utility very limited. Let's face it, Windows and Android are as different as day and night (or night and day if you prefer the symbolism). Sharing documents and other data between the two is problematic at best. To my knowledge, these “Windroid” devices haven’t sold very well. At least I’ve never seen one in the wild.
Now look at the convertible concept with Apple glasses on. OS X and iOS are very similar at their core. In fact, iOS runs on an optimized version of the OS X (Darwin) kernel. Most OS X console commands work on iOS and virtually all iOS console commands work on OS X. Data and document sharing is much less of a challenge between the two also. In fact, with the release of iOS 7, iWork and iLife documents can all be shared between your Mac and iOS devices seamlessly with iCloud being the default storage medium for all. For example, I'm on my sofa writing this on my new iPad Air. Now I'm going to close Pages and walk 20 feet to my Mac…(19, 18, 17,…) and now I've opened Pages on my Mac, selected this document and will finish writing the post. It really is that simple and that instant. In less than 15 seconds iCloud had everything in sync. Now, to be fair, I've never owned (or even used other than Fry's demo units on the sales floor) a Windows/Android convertible, but I did spend a couple of weeks with a Surface Pro. It was too bulky and heavy as a tablet and too slow and awkward as a laptop. Windows 8 requires too much horsepower to be effective in a thin, light (iPad-like) package. Besides, the jury is back and Windows 8 officially sucks. The Surface isn't really a convertible anyway. It's just Microsoft's idea of a tablet with a keyboard attached. When I think of a convertible I think that each half adds significant capabilities. When I envision what Apple may do, I think of the display portion of this imaginary machine being pretty much like an iPad, complete with CPU, GPU, camera, mic, battery and touch display while the keyboard half or "base" section could add ports (maybe just a couple of Thunderbolts will do), more battery, a backlit keyboard and a touchpad. Together, they make a quite capable Mac. Separated, the display is a great...well, iPad running iOS. The OS is switched when the two are joined or separated, or maybe at the user's discretion. It really doesn't matter. The point is, this machine I've cooked up will have the necessary muscle and connectivity to act like a truck when joined, the sleek portability and proven multitouch UI to be a car when separated and loads of interoperable apps that work for both.
Of course, there's lots of smart folks at Apple to engineer this convertible into much more than I can imagine. A machine like this even fits Apple's M.O. Take a failed (or under-performing) product category like convertibles and re-engineer it into something that creates a new market. They did it with the smartphone and the tablet. Why not with the convertible? A Mac when you need one, an iPad when you don't. Brilliant! I'd buy one, but then I buy most everything Apple makes. Just ask my wife. On second thought, let's not.