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Entries in predictions (12)

Monday
Feb082010

California, Here I Come!

Lots of tech journalists have already buried Macworld.  Apple’s decision a year ago to nix participation in all trade shows probably didn’t mean much to anybody except the Macworld organizers and those of us who make the annual pilgrimage.  Conventional thinking would seem to dictate that a conference and trade show devoted to the use of Apple products would suffer if Apple wasn’t there, but I’m not sure we Macheads bow to conventions.  It looks like the number of vendor participants is down a bit and this year’s attendance is still TBD, but I get the feeling all is well.  Sure, there’s no big keynote presentation to get everyone all worked up.  Apple made their splash last week with the big iPad event, so there certainly won’t be any earth-shattering press releases, but those things are really for the rest of the world.  While we really enjoyed being part of the big keynote announcements (as evidenced by the 4 AM queues), us Macworld attendees really enjoy being around each other.  NASCAR fans have Daytona, Harley-Davidson riders have Sturgis and we Apple geeks have Macworld.  We really are fans in the truest sense of the word.

I, for one think that IDG (the company that puts on Macworld Expo) has a real opportunity to make this expo all about us fans. In fact, it will be interesting to see just what type atmosphere they foster with no worries about offending Apple.  You know, when the cat’s away…

I’m traveling to San Francisco tomorrow (Monday) to attend the conference that begins two days before the expo opens.  I’m signed up for a couple of labs Tuesday and Wednesday and they look like the normal fair.  Maybe they’ll add a little extra to the curriculum like say, iPhone baseband modification or how to crack wireless encryption with an iPod Touch.  There’s no reason now to keep a lid on that type of thing.  What’s Apple going to do, boycott?  I for one would be first in line for a lab called “OS X on a Dell Mini 10” or “Running Snow Leopard on Your iPad”.  These are exaggerations, of course, but its not hard to imagine how constrained things can be with Apple looking over your shoulder.  In fact, I’m certain that not pissing off Mr. Jobs was high on IDG’s priority list for past expos.

The pre-expo buzz seems to be as prolific as ever, just minus the rumors and guesswork about what Apple may announce at the keynote.  For me, I’m OK with Apple having already shot their wad last week.  Now we can turn our attention to the rest of the show and not worry about Apple’s overshadowing.  The Apple portion of the expo was never much to see anyway.  They put on a few good presentations, but for the most part it amounted to little more than a great big Apple store staffed with employees who rarely knew as much about the products as the average expo attendee.  I’m sure the biggest hurt for IDG will be the absence of the check Apple used to write for renting almost half of the south hall.

Sorry, but no time to continue, gotta pack.  If this is the last Macworld Expo as many have predicted, I’m gonna get my money’s worth.  With Apple being more popular than ever, there must be a good number of hard-core zealots like myself to keep this train rolling.  I’m guessing there’ll be an Expo 2011.

Friday
Jan292010

And Now, A Real iPad Prediction...

I’ve spent the last couple of days combing through all the fuzz and digesting Wednesday’s iPad announcement.  I probably listened to 8 hours of punditry on top of watching the recording of the event itself.  I’ve read Mossberg, Pogue, Doctorow and the like to see what their vision of the iPad looked like.  My last post questioned whether or not Steve Jobs had another homer in his well-worn bat and after all this pondering I think I’ve come to a moment of clarity concerning the iPad.

This is rev 1 of a true game-changer!  The iPad is the device I think Mr. Jobs has always wanted to make.  It just took until now for the technology to catch up to his vision of a ubiquitous computing appliance.  Something powerful, something easy, something beautiful, something fun.  A computing device that is as comfortable on a coffee table as it is on a boardroom table.  A device that does 90% of what anyone would want it to do and as easy for my grandmother to use as it is for me.  In short, this is a device that will appeal to everyone.  People who would never consider sitting on a sofa with a laptop, people that can’t bear dragging out a computer while sitting in coach on an airplane, people that skip a step while making a new recipe because they didn’t want to stop and look up an ingredient list, people that prefer pen and paper to take notes in class because a laptop is too bulky, too distracting or just too inconvenient, people who are intimidated by computers in general plus people like me.  You know, geeks.  I can’t think of anyone who would not want an iPad, especially at $499!

For us geeks the realization of a truly functional device like the fictitious ones wielded by the Enterprise crew is almost a dream come true.  We would buy one just to fulfill our fantasies.  For Apple fans, all the iPad needs is the logo.  Done deal.  For everyone else, the iPad’s potential for practical use and unparalleled convenience will eventually win them over.  It may take a while, but sooner or later applications will be written that pull everyone’s particular chain.  The possibilities are truly limitless.

For all these reasons I predict iPad sales will make even the astronomical iPhone numbers pale by comparison.  Some day we will look back on January 27th, 2010 as the day everyone became part of the technological revolution. 


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