And Now, A Real iPad Prediction...

I’ve spent the last couple of days combing through all the fuzz and digesting Wednesday’s iPad announcement.  I probably listened to 8 hours of punditry on top of watching the recording of the event itself.  I’ve read Mossberg, Pogue, Doctorow and the like to see what their vision of the iPad looked like.  My last post questioned whether or not Steve Jobs had another homer in his well-worn bat and after all this pondering I think I’ve come to a moment of clarity concerning the iPad.

This is rev 1 of a true game-changer!  The iPad is the device I think Mr. Jobs has always wanted to make.  It just took until now for the technology to catch up to his vision of a ubiquitous computing appliance.  Something powerful, something easy, something beautiful, something fun.  A computing device that is as comfortable on a coffee table as it is on a boardroom table.  A device that does 90% of what anyone would want it to do and as easy for my grandmother to use as it is for me.  In short, this is a device that will appeal to everyone.  People who would never consider sitting on a sofa with a laptop, people that can’t bear dragging out a computer while sitting in coach on an airplane, people that skip a step while making a new recipe because they didn’t want to stop and look up an ingredient list, people that prefer pen and paper to take notes in class because a laptop is too bulky, too distracting or just too inconvenient, people who are intimidated by computers in general plus people like me.  You know, geeks.  I can’t think of anyone who would not want an iPad, especially at $499!

For us geeks the realization of a truly functional device like the fictitious ones wielded by the Enterprise crew is almost a dream come true.  We would buy one just to fulfill our fantasies.  For Apple fans, all the iPad needs is the logo.  Done deal.  For everyone else, the iPad’s potential for practical use and unparalleled convenience will eventually win them over.  It may take a while, but sooner or later applications will be written that pull everyone’s particular chain.  The possibilities are truly limitless.

For all these reasons I predict iPad sales will make even the astronomical iPhone numbers pale by comparison.  Some day we will look back on January 27^th, 2010 as the day everyone became part of the technological revolution. 

Tablet, Shmablet. Will Steve Jobs Make History? Again?

Growing up in Houston as a huge baseball fan I was privileged to watch Nolan Ryan pitch for the Astros.  There was always a possibility of witnessing a no-hitter whenever he was the hurler.  Watching Mr. Jobs walk out on stage is a lot like that.  Any Apple announcement he presents is a potential history-maker.

If January 27th doesn’t get here pretty soon I fear many of the Apple technorati will suffer aneurisms from the anxiety and anticipation.  Whatever Mr. Jobs has up his sleeve, his company is the beneficiary of millions of words of free press speculating about it.  I’m continually amazed by Apple’s ability to virtually hypnotize its customers and tech pundits alike.  It’s hard to imagine any device living up to the hype of the past few weeks, but that’s what I thought before the iPhone was announced.  One thing is certain.  If any company is capable of exceeding the expectations of us mere mortals, its Apple.  Do they have one more home run in their bat? Are they capable of producing another industry-changing product?  If so, it would be number six.  Don’t believe me?

1. In 1984 Apple announced the Mac and changed the way people interacted with computers.  Before that, nobody knew what a mouse was or even an icon.  Operating a personal computer through a graphical user interface with sound and text-to-speech was completely foreign to PC users running DOS and ASCII-based applications like Wordstar and Lotus 1-2-3.  I know.  I was one of them.
2. In 1997 the first Bondi Blue iMac shattered everyone’s “beige box” concept of what a computer should look like and how easy they could be to set up, get on-line and operate.
3. 2001 was the year of the iPod.  Five cavernous gigs of storage, a unique click wheel and a UI that redefined how we consume digital content.  Yes, I know it wasn’t the first digital music player, but I’d argue it was the first good one.
4. October 16, 2003 is the real birthday of iTunes.  It was released in January 2001 for the Mac, but it languished in relative obscurity until Apple released version 4.1 on the Windows platform.  At the time, Macs only occupied about 1.5% of the personal computer market.  Releasing iTunes for Windows launched the iTunes/iPod ecosystem into the stratosphere where iTunes now enjoys the enviable position as the worlds largest music retailer with iPods controlling greater than 75% market share of digital music players.
5. 2007. The iPhone.  Enough said.

Great companies are built on just one accomplishment the size of any one of these.  Apple (more precisely, Mr. Jobs) has knocked five out of the park!  Rumor has it, he’s excited about this thingy he’ll announce on the 27th.  If this new product gives him a woody it must be something really special.

Maybe the press is justifiably chatty.  If any one of them had been this giddy about the iPod in 2001 they’d be considered a modern-day Nostradamus by now.  Back then CNET’s headline read “Apple’s iPod Spurs Mixed Reactions”.  No matter what Apple reveals in a couple of weeks, it will probably be a commercial success.  There are more than enough fanboys out there with $1000 tucked away who’ll buy anything Steve tells them to.  I would almost put myself in that category and my wife would certainly count me with the fanboys.  Right now, I can’t think of one reason why I might want some sort of tablet computer, but like everyone who isn’t Steve Jobs, I’m limited by my lack of vision.  The reports I read from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show indicate I’m not the only myopic.  Las Vegas seemed awash in prototype “slate” computers from a variety of companies all trying to jump the gun on Apple, no doubt.  Obviously, none succeeded or we’d all have pictures of their new device burned into our LCDs by now.  Apple, by comparison, is not satisfied to simply fill a perceived need, but tends to invent a new need (and a new market) by devising original and creative ways to utilize technology.  I guess we’ll all find out what we’ve been missing on January 27th.  It will be interesting to see if Mr. Jobs brings his “A” game.