Why the Apple Watch Will Crush

I've been hearing a lot of tech dribble about how the Watch (Sorry, non-Apple users. This translates to “Apple Watch” on a Mac.) will be a lackluster release at best and a dismal failure at worst. These "experts" site the number of Android-wear watches sold total less than one million and the Watch is dependent on an iPhone to do anything and it's starting price of $349 is too expensive and so on and so forth. These are the same "experts" who said the iPad was "just a big iPod Touch" and the iPhone was destined to fail because it lacked a physical keyboard. The point is, a complete industry exists who's sole purpose is to predict Apple's doom at every turn. They don't ever have to be right. They don't even have to site accurate data. All these journalist businesses have to do is generate clicks, and pissing in Apple's Cheerios is a proven method for success. It's just like someone at Car and Driver writing a piece about how badly a new Ford sucks. Right or wrong, it's bound to get a few million Chevy fans fired up.

So, I'll just ignore all the link baiters and counter what few semi-legitimate points I've read. First, there's the one about how few wearable (Android, Pebble, etc.) devices have sold to date. The obvious analogy here is the tablet category. Manufacturers had been making tablet computers for almost twenty years before the iPad's introduction in 2010 and the tablet market never rose above niche level. Despite all the naysayers' pontifications about the iPad being nothing more than a big iPod Touch, Apple sold more iPads in its first year than the entire industry managed to sell in the entire twenty years prior. So, who cares how many Android-wear devices have sold so far? That has nothing to do with what Apple will bring to the wrist party. Apple will do what it always does, add a completely new and unique user experience to their ever-expanding ecosystem and a very large number of people will love it. The Watch's "taptic" feedback, digital crown and force touch screen are all features no one has ever used and the combination promises a user experience unequalled in the category. It becomes a very personal extension of the user's iPhone, offering functionality no one but Apple can deliver by virtue of owning the entire hardware/software platform soup to nuts. And once the virtual army of third-party iOS developers add what will quickly grow to hundreds, then thousands of Watch-specific apps, a "killer" feature will surely emerge. Probably not one killer feature for millions of users, but like the iPhone, hundreds of valuable features each appealing to tens of thousands of users.

Next, is $349 really too much to pay for the Watch? Hardly. Does anyone remember 2007? The original iPhone was not subsidized by AT&T. Those who wanted one (like myself) coughed up at least $600 and many stood in line for days in advance for the privilege. Why? Because owning an iPhone back then was truly something special. So special we put up with no 3G service and no third-party apps and we were glad to do it because we saw the iPhone as the truly game-changing device it was. And besides, it was cool beyond belief to be one of the few. I'm not too proud to admit to being a bit of a show-off and I'm positive I wasn't the only one. I'm just as sure the Watch will garner the same effect. When I occasionally wear my 6th gen. iPod Nano on my wrist, I've been asked more than once if it was the new Watch. That just makes me want the real thing even more (if that's possible). There are literally millions of unapologetic Apple fans like myself who won't think twice about spending $400, $500 or even $600 to be the first to own Apple's newest. Do the math. There are over 200 million Watch compatible iPhones (5, 5S, 5C, 6 & 6 Plus) in use today. If only 2% of those owners share my sentiment, Apple sells four million Watches. That may be a small number by Apple's standards, but only Apple's. Any other manufacturer selling four million of any device would be considered a huge success. I'm guessing the percentage is probably closer to 5, translating to 10 million Watches. Coincidentally, that's how many original iPhones Apple sold in 2007.

There will be no end to the myriad publications bad-mouthing the Watch no matter how many are sold. Just as, even today there's no end to naysaying about the iPhone, the most successful mobile device ever by any measure. Brand X has a higher resolution camera, Brand Y’s screen has more pixels or Brand Z has more RAM. The long and short of it: Consumers don’t give a hoot about that stuff. iPhone users like iPhones because of how pleasant their experience is. Period. Apple’s holistic approach to the iOS platform is what makes the iPhone the juggernaut it is. It has been so successful it's market share is usually measured against the entirety of Android devices rather than a single model or manufacturer. And while Apple garnishes 93% of smartphone profits, everyone else in the business is struggling to make money on the remaining 7. Is there reason to believe the same won't happen in the wearable category? I think not.

The Watch will re-invent the category and mint more money for Apple. So, I'm offering the same advice I offered in 2007 when the original iPhone came to market. Advice I follow myself. Buy AAPL!